As we head into the home stretch of Kentucky’s 2015 primaries I was thinking about an article I read several years ago written by Nate Silver, of 538 fame. Titled “15 Clarifying Questions For Close Elections,” he wrote it in the days leading up to the 2010 Mid-Terms.
In the article, Silver offers 15 things that can be predictive of how an election might turn out. It’s a good guide for what you might want to look for as we head down to the wire.
Three key things Silver says to look for:
Which candidate’s supporters are more enthusiastic?
Which candidate is liable to have the better turnout operation?
Which candidate stands to benefit from cellphone-only voters, or other voters who may not be represented in the polls?